MARKET OVERVIEW

As of Close of 4th Quarter 2025

Market Recap

US equities, gold and silver, and treasuries rallied year to date. Precious metals and stocks set record highs while bond prices steadily climbed throughout the year. S&P index growth of nearly 18%, gold surged more than 60% while silver saw impressive yearly growth of nearly 150%. US treasury yields spiked in early 2025 with the 10YR hit 4.80% only to end the year at 4.16%.
Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December in addition to quantitative easing policies beginning in December to support long-term debt markets. Credit spreads remain tight as global investors continue to seek US debt.
GDP came in better than expected in the 3rdquarter at 4.3% primarily supported by resilient consumer consumption and strong net export growth.
Consumer Prices remained tame in the 4th quarter; November release was 2.70% and December release scheduled for January 13th

We expect the US economy to continue its strong run into 2026. As the drag of trade-policy uncertainty is fading and an easing Federal Reserve, US equities are poised to maintain the bull run. AI-related investments should continue their dominance as money pours into grid buildout and data centers.
CPI data for October and November suggests inflation momentum is waning, we anticipate additional interest rates cuts in 2026 as the Federal Reserve shifted to more accommodating policies.
Look for housing prices to rebound in 2026 as the government-backed housing finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac add home loans and mortgage-backed securities to their balance sheets. Existing home sales finished the year on a positive trend heading into 2026.
A cooling labor market and geopolitical risks serve as possible headwinds for 2026 for the US economy. However, we assume favorable monetary and fiscal policies will support growth in US equities.